On the last trading week of the year and for the third consecutive week, gold and silver prices rose, with gold ending $26 (2%) higher and with silver ending up by 57 cents (3.5%). As a result of silver’s relative percentage outperformance, the silver/gold price ratio tightened in by more than a full point to just under 77 to 1; still within the fairly tight trading range of the past few years. Despite silver’s relative outperformance in percentage terms, gold price action has been much stronger visibly, with silver appearing to struggle to keep up with gold on this recent rally. I would attribute silver’s better showing in percentage terms to be due strictly to just how cheap the price of silver has become. Even a visible lagging in the price of silver compared to gold, still manages to translate into better relative percentage returns on the recent rally.…
December 27, 2017 – A Madman’s Playbook
A combination of advancing age and seasonal nostalgia, but mostly the current extremely bullish market structure in COMEX silver and gold prompts me to stroll down memory lane. As a forewarning, this is in no way of intended to lure or suggest anyone to replicate what is, upon the reflection of decades, surely the behavior of a madman. As I’ve recounted on countless times, more than 30 years ago I developed an unnatural fascination for the metal silver as a result of a challenge given to me by Israel Friedman, a commodity client at the time (actually, Izzy wasn’t even my client, but we were both students of the market and conversed in those terms). Izzy’s challenge was for me to explain how the price could be so low given the fact that more of it was being consumed industrially than was being produced (this was five years or…
December 23, 2017 – Weekly Review
Gold and silver prices closed higher for a second week, with gold finishing higher by $21 (1.7%) and silver ending up by 33 cents (2%). The slight relative outperformance of silver caused the silver/gold price ratio to tighten in by a fraction of a point to just under 78 to 1. The ratio remains trapped within a fairly tight trading range of the past few years, meaning anyone who traded gold for silver (or vice versa) over this time has neither benefitted nor been harmed – sort of like kissing your sister (assuming you have good sisters, as I do). In time, and maybe not much of it, those who have switched to silver should finally be rewarded. Even though silver slightly outperformed gold in percentage terms this week, Friday’s rally saw gold close over its two most important moving averages (the 50 day and 200 day ma’s) for…
December 20, 2017 – A Ten Year Deal?
Here’s a thought that I fully acknowledge didn’t originate with me, but from a close associate, even though it incorporates many of my findings. If it does come to fruition, I will gladly reveal my associate’s identity to give him his proper due; but in case it doesn’t, I’ll spare him any embarrassment for an incorrect premise. As I think you’ll see, I can’t deny that my friend’s premise seems to tie up all the loose ends about the silver manipulation. In a few short months, we will hit the ten year anniversary of perhaps the most seminal event in modern silver history – the takeover of the failing investment bank, Bear Stearns, by JPMorgan in March 2008. Bear Stearns failed as a firm due to a variety of problems which, in effect, caused a run on the bank. But what makes the failure and subsequent takeover so prominent in…
December 16, 2017 – Weekly Review
Following three consecutive weekly declines and fresh new multi-month price lows mid-week, gold and silver prices finished higher for the week. Gold ended $8 (0.6%) higher, while silver finished 25 cents (1.6%) higher. As a result of silver’s relative outperformance, the silver/gold price ratio tightened in by three quarters of a point to just over 78 to 1. Nothing in the world could account for silver’s other worldly undervaluation, other than the artificial pricing emanating from COMEX paper contract positioning. COMEX futures market positioning, always the most important price influence in gold and silver (and other commodities), demonstrated that in the clearest terms yet, courtesy of the new Commitments of Traders (COT) report. I did have high expectations that the report would indicate a further move to more bullish market structures in gold and silver, but all I could say when I viewed the data was “Holy Crap!” If…
December 13, 2017 – The Last Roundup
Let me comment on some of the latest developments that I consider important to price before getting into the main topic of the day. First up is the large reduction in the short position of SLV, the big silver ETF, reported late Monday. http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=slv&submit=Short+Quote%E2%84%A2 For positions held as of Nov 30, the short position in SLV fell by a hefty 7.2 million shares, to 12.9 million shares (ounces), one of the largest reductions in memory. Of course, the short position in SLV had just swelled to the highest levels in quite some time in recent prior reporting periods, so the size of the short position is not all that much different from where it was a little while back. Still, there is no denying that recent changes, both up and down, in the size of the short position in SLV have been large. While it’s true that COMEX…