Review and Outlook It's natural to look both back and ahead as the year draws to an end and since I haven't done a formal yearend review in some time, I'll do so today for silver and gold. The only difference for this review is that because this year's price performance and its cause are indistinguishable from silver and gold price performance for the past few years, it is more appropriate to consider this a multi-year review. The bad news is in the review itself; the outlook is all good news. After making historic price highs in 2011, gold and silver prices chopped throughout 2012, with gold ending 2012 around $1650 and silver around $30. Then came the devastating decline starting in early 2013 and gold and silver prices traded that year below $1200 and $18 respectively. We've made new price lows throughout 2014 and 2015, down…

COT Comments One good thing about publishing comments on the Mondays of holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders (COT) reports is the opportunity of discussing price action that day. Today's price drubbing, silver lost almost twice as much of what it gained last week. There were no outside influences or sudden change in actual supply and demand that accounted for the price smash, because there never are any. The only reason for the decline was commercial shucking and jiving, aka price fixing, in which the commercials hoodwink the managed money technical funds into selling COMEX futures contracts. The only good thing about intentional price takedowns, like occurred today, is such price riggings always result in the strengthening of market structure. While we won't be able to fully gauge how many managed money contracts were sold and how many commercial contracts were purchased today until this Friday's COT report, based upon…

Weekly Review For the holiday-shortened trading week, gold ended $10 (0.9%) higher, while silver finished 30 cents (2.1%) higher. As a result of silver's relative outperformance this week, the silver/gold price ratio tightened in a bit to just under 75 to 1, just about smack dab in the middle of a trading range that has extended for more than a year. While it goes without saying that I still find silver grossly undervalued relative to gold, I'd like to make a different point regarding the price ratio. Along with the daily price action 99% of the time, the remarkable thing about the silver/gold price ratio is how little it has changed over the past year and longer. Moreover, just about every single trading day features a near continuous lockstep move – up or down – in gold and silver, as if there was some immutable law of…

Explaining the Past and the Future The first demand we must all make when considering whether an explanation or a prediction for what may unfold in the future is plausible or not, is whether that same explanation is consistent and in conformity with what occurred in the past. In other words, if someone gives you a price target on gold or silver based on a premise that bears no connection with past price history, skepticism would be in order. The future is always unknown, but the past is there for all to see. Therefore, if a premise of the future is not compatible with the past, such a premise would be lacking in substance. In the case of gold and silver, any plausible prediction for what lies ahead must also explain what occurred over the past four and a half years, in which gold and silver prices…

Weekly Review After a week in which new six-year price lows were established in both metals and extreme daily price volatility was recorded, the price of gold ended the week $8 (0.7%) lower, while the price of silver rose by 18 cents (1.3%). As a result of silver's relative outperformance (following last week's extreme underperformance), the silver/gold price ratio tightened in by 1.6 points to 75.7 to 1; still within the broad relative trading range over the past year. Yes, I still contend that while both metals are artificially priced (and depressed) by trading on the COMEX, silver is vastly more depressed than gold, which makes it the better investment value. But while gold did record a new six-year weekly closing low (which silver achieved last week), the fact is that gold and silver prices have been largely unchanged over the past six weeks. I know it…

Better Than Ever With silver (and gold) close to six year price lows, how can anyone claim that the outlook for higher prices is better than ever? Well, for one reason – because prices are close to six year lows; at least if you believe in the premise of buying low and selling high. After all, the price is the most important variable in any investment or commodity and if you believe it is better to buy low what could be better than a six year low? Of course, that may sound like I might be trying to minimize the pain and losses of existing silver and gold investors over the past few years, but having also lived through and suffered during this time of misery, I can assure you that's not my intent. The financial and emotional damage has been too great to make light of…