Weekly Review In a somewhat unusual twist, even for a holiday shortened week, the price of gold and silver finished exactly unchanged, following four weeks of lower prices. As a result, the silver/gold ratio finished unchanged at 55 to 1; much wider than a month ago, but still within the trading range for the past year. Given the market structure and the developing fundamentals in silver, I don't expect price volatility to remain subdued for long, but I still remain unsure of which direction short term prices will move next. This short term uncertainty stands in stark contrast to my price expectations for silver longer term. Conditions in the wholesale physical silver market continue tight when measured by my most important metric – COMEX silver warehouse movement. Thanks to a big report day on Christmas Eve, in which more than 1.7 million oz were both shipped in…

Malfeasance I received some great feedback from subscribers in my solicitation for suggestions on how to deal with the silver manipulation going forward (some of which I've yet to respond to personally). All were constructive and greatly appreciated. One, from across the pond, struck a nerve. Actually, it was the perfect word at the center of what George from the UK suggested that caused a bit of a jolt in me. The word was malfeasance. George even included a Wikipedia link for the equally perfect term, malfeasance in office – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malfeasance_in_office In truth, George had previously written to me about this subject and may have even used the term before, but for some reason it had not clicked with me. You know how it is – sometimes the light only goes on in your head if you are ready for it to go on. Thanks to George's…

Weekly Review For the fourth week of declines that most metals investors wished never occurred, the price of gold and silver fell and fell sharply. Gold was hit for $40 (2.4%) and silver was walloped for $2.30 ((7.1%), in the process both falling to price lows not seen since August. As a result of silver's sharp underperformance, the silver/gold ratio blew out by a nearly three full points to almost 55.5 to 1. As always, sharp changes in the ratio are determined by the sharpness of silver's price action. Somewhat remarkably, we are still within the broader trading range for the ratio going back more than a year. Since I am convinced that silver will sharply outperform gold longer term, I must view the recent relative silver weakness (and any further weakness) as a wonderful opportunity to switch gold positions into silver. Aside from creating a better…

Some Surprises If you look back long enough, invariably you will recognize that there were some developments that turned out almost exactly as you expected and some that surprised you completely. Just like I believe that man learns more from failure than success; I believe we learn more from what surprises us than that which turns out as expected. When future events turn out as we expected, generally we chalk it up to our own superior foresight and intelligence and learn little that is new. With the unexpected outcomes we are forced to confront why we missed them and we must factor that into future thinking. Surprises make you think. I'd like to look at silver over the past 5 or 10 or 25 years in terms of what turned out as expected and what surprised me. Obviously, since I think there is more for me…

Weekly Review Against a backdrop of an unspeakable national tragedy involving the most innocent victims of all, it seems almost inappropriate to discuss mundane matters of money and markets. As coincidence would have it, I pass through the area twice each year on my annual migration and a number of reviews have been sent from there over the years. There will be different thoughts on my mind in future travels. Relative importance aside, since I can't make sense of such horrors let me stick to matters I think I understand. For the third week running, the price of gold and silver fell, gold by a modest $8 (0.5%), with silver falling a more significant 80 cents (2.4%). As a result of silver's outperformance to the downside, the silver/gold ratio widened out by a full point to 52.5 to 1. This is still within the ratio's trading range…

My Worst Fear Recently, I have received several emails containing conversations between readers and CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton. They discuss my allegations of a silver price manipulation because of the large concentrated COMEX short position held by JPMorgan. Chilton has always been quick to respond to those writing to him, a rarity for high officials. Now Commissioner Chilton is trying to explain away the allegations of a silver manipulation differently than he has in the past. I found this disturbing and it suggests the CFTC may never do anything about the silver manipulation. Here is my response in an email to Chilton: “Commissioner Chilton, “A reader sent me the following reply from you to him about the short concentration in COMEX silver – “‘Hi Tom ‘The Commitment of Traders report does not show net positions. So, simply adding all the largest longs up, or looking at one…